Scientists warn that the next pandemic is likely to be caused by a flu virus

Influenza is the biggest threat to global well-being so far, as the WHO raises concerns about the spread of a bird strain

Influenza is a microorganism that is likely to trigger another pandemic sooner rather than later, researchers say.

A global study, to be distributed one weekend from now, reveals that 57% of senior disease specialists currently imagine that the cause of the next global episode of a dangerous overwhelming disease will be a type of seasonal infection.

 Scientists warn that the next pandemic is likely to be caused by a flu virus

The belief that influenza is the world's most prominent pandemic danger rests on long-term research that shows it is constantly evolving and transforming, said Jon Salmanton-García of Cologne College, who completed the review.

"Every colder season, the flu comes out," he said. "You could describe these episodes as mini-pandemics. They are largely controlled in light of the fact that the various strains that cause them are not adequately harmful – but this situation is not really going to last forever."

The details of the review - which included input from a total of 187 senior researchers - will be revealed at the European Culture of Clinical Microbial Science and Intractable Diseases (ESCMID) congress in Barcelona at the weekend.

The next likely cause of a pandemic,

The next likely cause of a pandemic, after the flu, is likely to be an infection — named Disease X — that is still unclear to science, according to 21% of experts who participated in the assessment. They agree that the next pandemic will be caused by a different miniature life form at this time that appears out of nowhere, much like the Sars-CoV-2 infection, the reason for the coronavirus, when it started. to contaminate humans in 2019.

To be sure, several researchers actually believe that the remaining parts of Sars-CoV-2 pose a danger, with 15% of researchers surveyed in the review calling it the most likely reason for the pandemic sooner rather than later.

Other destructive miniature creatures—for example, Lassa, Nipah, Ebola, and Zika infections—were rated as serious worldwide dangers by simply 1% to 2% of respondents. "Influenza remains - to an extremely enormous extent - the main danger of its pandemic, according to most of the world's researchers," added Salmanton-García.

Last week, the World Wellbeing Association raised concerns about the alarming spread of H5N1 influenza, which is causing a huge number of bird flu cases around the world. This episode began in 2020 and prompted the culling or killing of large numbers of poultry and also exterminated large numbers of wild birds.

Recently, the infection has spread to vertebrate species, including domestic cows, which are currently infected in 12 US states, further expanding concerns about the danger to humans. The more species of mammal the infection infects, the more open doors it needs to evolve into a strain dangerous to humans, Daniel Goldhill of the Imperial Veterinary School in Hatfield told Nature last week.

The presence of H5N1 infection in cows was a shock,

The presence of H5N1 infection in cows was a shock, added Glasgow College virologist Ed Hutchinson. "Pigs can get bird flu, but up until this point, steers haven't. It was infected with its own types of infection. So the presence of H5N1 in cows was a shock."

"This means that the risk of the infection getting into more and more livestock and then from livestock to humans just keeps increasing. The more the infection spreads, then at that point its capabilities are transformed so that it can spread on people," he added. and up, we're basically rolling the dice with this infection."

So far, there is no evidence that H5N1 has spread between humans. Be that as it may, in many situations where humans have been contaminated by contact with creatures in recent years, the effect has been dire. "The death rate is unusually high because people have no regular immunity to infection," said Jeremy Farrar, chief researcher at the World Wellbeing Association.

The possibility of a flu pandemic is worrisome, despite the fact that researchers also report that immunizations against many strains, including H5N1, have been proactively created. "Assuming there was a bird flu pandemic, it would in any case be a gigantic calculated challenge to create immunizations at the scale and speed needed. Regardless, we would be much further down that street than we were with the coronavirus when immunizations have to be." created without any preparation,” Hutchinson said.

In any case, several examples of disease prevention have been forgotten since the end of the coronavirus pandemic, Salmanton-García said. "Individuals have gone back to hacking into their hands and then greeting others warmly. The wearing of coverings has disappeared. We are reverting to our old negative patterns of behavior. We could bemoan that."